AHAM NZENWATA
ABSTRACT
This seminar paper investigated the effect of foreign
portfolio investment on the performance of the Nigeria stock market. In order
to achieve the purpose of the study, data on FPI, market capitalization and All
share was collected from the CBN Statistical bulletin and analyzed using simple
regression analysis. The findings of the research showed that inflow of foreign
portfolio investment into the Nigeria stock market is statistically significant
in determining the performance of the stock market. It was therefore conclude
that the inflow of foreign portfolio investment into the country is an
important source of improved liquidity and better performance in the Nigeria
Stock Exchange. We therefore recommend that policies that will attract more
foreign capital into the stock market be put in place to further boost
performance. To this end, we recommend that more companies be attracted to get
listed on the stock exchange to further deepen the market thus increasing
trading activities and improving liquidity.
1 INTRODUCTION
Foreign
portfolio investment (FPI) consists of securities and other financial assets
passively held by foreign investors. It does not provide the investor with
direct ownership of financial assets and is relatively liquid depending on the
volatility of the market.
The phenomenon
of Foreign Portfolio Investment in emerging market economies has always
attracted the attention of writers from the theoretical and empirical
perspective. Proponents of foreign portfolio investment picture it as adding
new resources/capital to the host economy in a way that improves efficiency and
stimulates economic growth. It is thus viewed as a panacea for economic
development by providing the capital underdeveloped countries desperately need
to fill their savings-investment gap (Olotu and Jegbefume 2011).
Most
developing countries are characterized by low level of domestic savings, which
has impeded the much-needed investment for economic development. In order to
attain a desirable level of investment that would ensure sustainable
development, developing country needs some foreign investments to bridge the
savings-investment gap. The gap when financed through foreign savings comes in
the form of capital flows. Capital flows is transmitted through foreign direct
investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), draw-down on foreign
reserves, foreign loans and credits etc (Obadan, 2004).
Another
feature of investment, especially in developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa
is the high import content of capital goods. This buttresses the contention in
the two gap model (Chenery and Bruno, 1962 and Bacha, 1982), that the lack of
foreign exchange may constitute a major constraint to sustain high rates of
investment and growth in developing economies. Therefore in countries like
Nigeria where domestic and foreign capital goods are highly complementary, the
lack of foreign resource to import machinery and equipment will always
constitute an impediment to growth. In other word, foreign exchange is a
crucial determinant factor in capital formation among developing countries of
Africa.
The observed
constraints notwithstanding several studies have articulated theoretically,
ways in which Foreign Investment can contribute to the growth of developing
economies. Some identified channels include increased capital accumulation in
the recipient economy, improved efficiency of locally owned firms through
contract and demonstration effects, and exposure to competition, technological
change, and human capital augmentation, increased exports and improvement and
efficiency of capital and financial markets.
However, the
extent to which Foreign Investment contributes to growth depends on the
economic and social condition or the quality of environment of the foreign
investment recipient country (Buckley et al, 2002). This quality of environment
relates to the rate of savings in the host country, the degree of openness and
the level of technological development. Countries with high rate of savings,
open trade regime and high technological product would benefit from increase
Foreign Investment to their economies. In addition, Foreign Investment may have
negative effect on the growth prospect of the recipient economy if they give
rise to a substantial reverse flows and/or if foreign investors obtain
substantial or other concessions from the host country.
Foreign
portfolio investment, though a recent phenomenon in Nigeria compared to foreign
direct investment, Oversea Development Assistance (ODA) and bank loans, were on
the increase since the mid-80s. The relative importance of Portfolio investment
to a small emerging market like Nigeria has been attributed to the effective
role played by the Nigerian capital market in the recent past. This includes
the deregulation of the capital market in 1993 which made the federal
government to internationalize the market in 1995, with the abrogation of laws
that constrained foreign participation in the Nigeria capital market (Olotu and
Jegbefume 2011).
Following the
abrogation of the Exchange Control Act 1962, foreigners can participate in the
Nigerian capital market both as operators and investors. Accordingly, with the
internationalization of the Nigerian stock exchange, which was part of the
financial liberalization policy in Nigeria in the mid 2000, there were
increased inflows of foreign portfolio investment into the Nigeria economy
through the capital market (CBN, 2006).
Foreign
Portfolio Investment (FPI) in bond and equity increased dramatically over the
last twenty years that by the end of 2005 it surpassed every other type of
capital inflows into Nigeria. It should be noted that institutional investors
have also become very important. Not only have they increased their share of
companies listed on the stock markets, they have also started to invest more in
other emerging and developed markets (AFDB/OECD, 2007 in Olotu and Jegbefume
2011).
However, with
the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2009, the FPI flow
into Nigeria decreased significantly. This seminar paper has the objective of
investigating the effect of foreign portfolio investment on the performance of
the Nigeria Stock Exchange and by extension on the economy.
2.1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
According to
the theory of portfolio investment by Hymer (1976), foreign portfolio investors
are attracted by the high interest rate because it reduces the borrowing cost;
foreign portfolio investor will invest until the interest rate gets equal all
over the world therefore it might be said that foreign portfolio investment is
affected by domestic interest rate and not by domestic returns. However, we see
that this this theory's structure oversimplifies a complex issue when the
problems of risk, uncertainty and volatility are introduced.
Therefore, the
risk factor in terms of foreign investment volatility ought to be given due
consideration. The term volatility is concerned with the international
investors' intention to invest for short-term benefits and they withdraw their
investment on uncertain conditions (Kodongo & Ojah, 2012). Thus, volatility
refers to the uncertainty regarding the flow of FPI in the country.
Portfolio
investors also consider the host country exchange rate along with the interest
rate. Devaluation of host country currency motivates the foreigners to invest
due to higher return (Bleaney & Greenaway, 2001); the fluctuation in real
exchange rate increases foreign investment volatility. Moreover, inflation also
affects volatility in FPI. Volatility in FPI is enhanced by decrease in return
and increase in inflation. Agarwal (1997) suggested that home country low
return and high inflation motivates portfolio investors to invest in other
countries where inflation is low and return is high.
Mody, Taylor,
and Kim, (2001) argued that increase in inflation is linked to decline in
foreign portfolio investment. Moreover, foreign portfolio investors are
attracted by high returns (Gordon & Gupta, 2003; Froot, O'Connell, &
Seasholes, 2001). They argue that stock market is an indicator of performance
and investor expectations for host country. Thus, rise in index would increase
the stock prices leading to higher returns and ultimately lower the volatility
in foreign portfolio investment.
Foreign
portfolio investment is chosen on two bases. First, FPI is more volatile in
nature so FPI is attaining the attention of regulators, policy makers and
investors because it is challenging the monetary policy by affecting
macroeconomic variables. Second, the literature has focused on the relationship
of capital flows (portflio) to stock market variables so this factor leaves the
gap for identifying the effect of foreign portfolio investment on the stock
market.
2.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
2.2.1 Foreign Portfolio Investment
Foreign
Portfolio Investment and Foreign Direct Investment as embodied within the
framework of Foreign Investment are concepts that some researchers including
those in the area of finance find difficult to delineate. Below, we shall
attempt to put these terms in the proper context by showing briefly their
similarities and differences.
Portfolio and
Direct Investment have different needs and will react to situations in
different ways, driven by the differing motivations of the investors but they
cannot be completely separated. There is no identifiable dividing line between
portfolio and direct investment, but only an area of overlap where the two
merge. For instance, a portfolio investor may be active in the equities market,
but equity holdings are also one of the main means of direct investment. At
what point does the portfolio investor become a direct investor? The same
overlap can also be found with debt holdings.
Corporate
bonds are a typical portfolio investment, and in most cases would not be
considered a direct investment. But, what in cases where a venture capitalist
loans a start-up company a large amount of money, underwriting a large share of
the start-up’s assets. The venture capitalist may not hold any evidence of
ownership because no shares have been issued, only debt. Nor may he have
measurable control over the start-up, but he is actively helping management to
run the business efficiently, to boost the likelihood of making good on his
investment.
Another way in
which foreign direct investment and portfolio are integrated is the associated
use of the two types of investment. Direct investors will be engaged in
portfolio investment as they manage their cash flows. For example, the
treasurer of a large retail chain will be in and out of the capital and money
markets as he manages the cash and other financial assets involved in the
business. Any classic direct investment of any size and autonomy will have a
similar treasurer’s function, and be an active portfolio investor.
Therefore,
there is no bright dividing line between portfolio and direct investment, but
instead overlap and integration. At what point does portfolio investment become
direct? For legal and policy purposes, it is at the point where the investor
exerts some measure of control over the underlying economic entity. This does
not have to be full control, or even majority control. There can be more than
one investor exerting control over an investment – a partnership or joint
venture is a familiar examples. The point where the investor gains some real
measure of influence over the operation of the investment is the point where he
crosses the line from portfolio to direct investment. That will vary with each
different type of business structure, and each different investment within that
structure.
2.2.2 The Stock Market
The stock
market is the market in which shares of publicly held companies are issued and
traded either through exchanges or over-the-counter markets. Also known as the
equity market, the stock market is one of the most vital components of a
free-market economy, as it provides companies with access to capital in
exchange for giving investors a slice of ownership in the company. The stock
market makes it possible to grow small initial sums of money into large ones,
and to become wealthy without taking the risk of starting a business or making
the sacrifices that often accompany a high-paying career (Investopedia, 2015).
The stock
market lets investors participate in the financial achievements of the
companies whose shares they hold. When companies are profitable, stock market
investors make money through the dividends the companies pay out and by selling
appreciated stocks at a profit called a capital gain. The downside is that
investors can lose money if the companies whose stocks they hold lose money,
the stocks' prices go down and the investor sells the stocks at a loss.
The stock
market can be split into two main sections: the primary market and the
secondary market. The primary market is where new issues are first sold through
initial public offerings. Institutional investors typically purchase most of
these shares from investment banks. All subsequent trading goes on in the
secondary market where participants include institutional, foreign and
individual investors.
Performance of
the stock market is measured using a series of indicators which include market
capitalization, the share index and volume of transactions in the market.
Market capitalization (market cap) is the market value at a point in time of
the shares outstanding of a publicly traded company, being equal to the share
price at that point of time times the number of shares outstanding.
As outstanding
stock is bought and sold in public markets, capitalization could be used as an
indicator of public opinion of a company's net worth and is a determining
factor in some forms of stock valuation. While the stock market index (All
Share Index) is a measurement of the value of a section of the stock market. It
is computed from the prices of selected stocks (typically a weighted average).
It is a tool used by investors and financial managers to describe the market,
and to compare the return on specific investments (Wikipedia, 2016).
2.4 REVIEW OF EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
The registered
increase in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in recent years has elicited
intense controversy about its implications on the Nigerian economy. While
proponents emphasize its positive spillover effects, critics express concern
about its volatility and the economy's vulnerability to its inflows. Olotu and
Jegbefume (2011) investigated the Place of Foreign Capital Flows in the
Nigerian Economic Growth Equation: with special emphasis on Foreign Portfolio
Investment. Utilizing the Engle-Granger and Error Correction Models the result
revealed that FPI has a positive relationship with the growth rate of real
non-oil GDP.
Ekeocha,
Ekeocha, Malaolu and Oduh (2012) investigated Modeled the Long Run Determinants
of Foreign Portfolio Investment in Nigeria. The study tried to ascertain the
long run determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Nigeria. Using
the finite distributed lag model, the study showed that FPI has a positive
long-run relationship with market capitalization, and trade openness in
Nigeria.
Ozurumba
(2012) investigated the impact of stock market returns on foreign portfolio
investment in Nigerian. The ojectives of the study were to identify the
relationship between foreign portfolio investment and stock market return,
inflation rate and stock market returns. Utilizing the multiple linear
regression analysis, the findings showed that foreign portfolio investment has
a positive and significant impact on stock market returns while inflation rate
has positive but insignificant impact on stock market returns.
Eniekezimene
(2013) on the impact of foreign portfolio investment on capital market growth
in Nigeria. The study X-rayed the growth of FPI in the market as well as the
transmission channels through which changes in FPI affect growth of the market.
Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methodology with a Parsimonious Error
Correction Model Specification, the result shows that foreign portfolio
investment has a positive impact on capital market growth with the speed of
adjustment from short run to long run.
Onuorah and
Akujuobi (2013) studied the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the
Performance of Foreign Portfolio Investment in Nigeria. The paper which
examined the impact of macro-economic variables on foreign portfolio
investments in Nigeria between the periods of 1980-2010 using data were sourced
from the World Bank statistical data base. The findings of the studied
indicated that macroeconomic variables were found to be statistically
insignificant to FPI based on F-statistic computed value. The findings also
revealed that there was no run relationship existing between GDP, inflation
rate, exchange rate, MS, interest rate and foreign portfolio investment.
Elekwa, Aniebo
and Ogu (2016) investigated how Foreign Portfolio Investment affects Employment
Growth in Nigeria. Using single equation
reduced form specification and employing data for the period 1980 to 2014, the
paper revealed that in the long term, portfolio investment impacts employment
growth positively and significantly. This outcome supports the general view in
the literature of a positive relationship between portfolio investment and
economic growth, and calls attention to this variable which has hardly been
considered in employment generation constructs on account of its famed
volatility and risk.
Onyeisi, Odo
and Anoke (2016) investigated Foreign Portfolio Investment and Stock Market
Growth in Nigeria. The which was designed to determine the impact of foreign
portfolio investment inflows on stock market growth in Nigeria from 1986 to
2014, used co-integration, vector error correction model and Granger Causality
econometric tools showed the existence of long-run significant impact of
foreign portfolio investment on stock market growth in Nigeria with the
implication that foreign portfolio investment
(FPI) inflows may not contribute positively to the increase in stock market
when there is no conducive business environment for foreign investments to
thrive in Nigeria
3 METHODOLOGY
We adopted the
OLS Regression Analysis Method to analyze the data collected for the purpose of
the study. Data used in the study were collected from the CBN statistical
bulletin, 2015 edition. As stated earlier, data collected the study was
analyzed using a Simple Regression Analysis of the Ordinary Least Squares
Method. In its general form, the model is specified as: y = a + bx + ei . . . . . . . . . . . . (i)
Where: y is
the dependent variable, x is the independent variable, a
is the constant term, b is the coefficients of the
independent variables and ei is the error term.
For the
purpose of this paper, we hypothesize that the inflow of foreign portfolio
investment into the stock market will lead to increased performance in in terms
of Stock market capitalization (mktcap) and All Share Index (ASI). Thus,
Stock
Market Performance = f(FPI) . . . . . . . . (ii)
Where
Stock market Performance is measured by Stock market capitalization (mktcap)
and All Share Index (ASI), it follows that:
Mktcap =
f(FPI) . . . . . . . . .. . (iv)
and
ASI = f(FPI) . . . . . . . .
. . . . .. . (v)
Where: FPI = Foreign Portfolio Investment
Mktcap = Market
Capitalization
ASI = All
Share Index
Mktcap
= a + b1FPI + ei . . . . . .
. . . . . . (vi)
ASI = a + b2FPI + ei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (vi)
The
a priori expectation is that: b1, b2 > 0
4.1 DATA PRESENTATION
Table
1:
|
Foreign Portfolio Investment
|
Market Capitalization
|
All Share Index
|
|
|
1986
|
151.6000
|
6.8
|
163.8
|
|
1987
|
4353.1000
|
8.2
|
190.9
|
|
1988
|
2611.8000
|
10
|
233.6
|
|
1989
|
-1618.8000
|
12.8
|
325.3
|
|
1990
|
-435.2000
|
16.3
|
513.8
|
|
1991
|
-594.9000
|
23.1
|
783
|
|
1992
|
36851.8000
|
31.2
|
1107.6
|
|
1993
|
-377.0000
|
47.5
|
1543.8
|
|
1994
|
-203.5000
|
66.3
|
2205
|
|
1995
|
-5785.0000
|
180.4
|
5092.2
|
|
1996
|
-12055.2000
|
285.8
|
6992.1
|
|
1997
|
-4785.8000
|
281.9
|
6440.5
|
|
1998
|
-637.5200
|
262.6
|
5672.7
|
|
1999
|
1015.7400
|
300
|
5266.4
|
|
2000
|
51079.1300
|
472.3
|
8111
|
|
2001
|
92518.9200
|
662.5
|
10963.1
|
|
2002
|
24789.1920
|
764.9
|
12137.7
|
|
2003
|
23555.5110
|
1359.3
|
20128.94
|
|
2004
|
23541.0000
|
2112.5
|
23844.5
|
|
2005
|
116035.0300
|
2900.06
|
24085.8
|
|
2006
|
360291.5460
|
5120.9
|
33189.3
|
|
2007
|
332547.7800
|
13181.69
|
57990.2
|
|
2008
|
157157.1585
|
9562.97
|
31450.78
|
|
2009
|
70938.4863
|
7030.84
|
20827.17
|
|
2010
|
556585.0700
|
9918.21
|
24770.52
|
|
2011
|
792360.2207
|
10275.34476
|
20730.63
|
|
2012
|
2687232.5115
|
14800.9444
|
28078.81
|
|
2013
|
2130179.9084
|
19077.41819
|
41329.19
|
|
2014
|
832392.0163
|
16875.1027
|
34657.15
|
|
2015
|
498132.2159
|
17003.39245
|
28642.25
|
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2016 Edition
4.2 DATA ANALYSES AND INTERPRETATION
|
Dependent Variable: MKTCAP
|
|
|
||
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
||
|
Date: 01/31/17 Time:
20:02
|
|
|||
|
Sample: 1986 2015
|
|
|
||
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std.
Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
2197.068
|
830.2420
|
2.646298
|
0.0132
|
|
FPI
|
0.007612
|
0.001218
|
6.248657
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.582375
|
Mean dependent var
|
4421.709
|
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.567459
|
S.D. dependent var
|
6246.382
|
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
4108.110
|
Akaike info criterion
|
19.54365
|
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.73E+08
|
Schwarz criterion
|
19.63707
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-291.1548
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
19.57354
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
39.04572
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.673344
|
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The result of data analyses above shows that the value of the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.582 which indicate that about 58.2% of the variations in foreign portfolio investment can be explained by variations in market capitalization.
Furthermore,
the coefficient of regression (B) for the relationship between foreign
portfolio investment and stock market capitalization gave a value of 0.0076
with the implication that one unit increase in foreign portfolio investment
will lead to a 0.0076 units increase in market capitalization and vice versa.
Finally, the
regression result show the computed t-statistic for the coefficient of foreign
portfolio investment is 6.249 which is greater than the critical t-statistic of
2.042 @ 0.05 level of significance. This means that there is a statistically
significant relationship between foreign portfolio investment and stock market
capitalization.
|
Dependent Variable: ASI
|
|
|
||
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
||
|
Date: 01/31/17 Time:
20:03
|
|
|||
|
Sample: 1986 2015
|
|
|
||
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std.
Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
11490.88
|
2608.690
|
4.404846
|
0.0001
|
|
FPI
|
0.012859
|
0.003828
|
3.359472
|
0.0023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.287279
|
Mean dependent var
|
15248.92
|
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.261825
|
S.D. dependent var
|
15023.81
|
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
12908.03
|
Akaike info criterion
|
21.83343
|
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.67E+09
|
Schwarz criterion
|
21.92684
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-325.5014
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
21.86331
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
11.28606
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.497755
|
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.002267
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The result of
data analyses above shows that the value of the coefficient of determination (R2)
is 0.287 which indicate that about28.7% of the variations in foreign portfolio
investment can be explained by variations in the All Share Index of the Nigeria
Stock Exchange.
Furthermore,
the coefficient of regression (B) for the relationship between foreign
portfolio investment and All Share Index gave a value of 0.013 with the
implication that a unit increase in foreign portfolio investment will lead to a
0.013 units increase in All Share Index of the Nigeria Stock Exchange and vice
versa.
Finally, the
regression result show the computed t-statistic for the coefficient of foreign
portfolio investment is 3.359 which is greater than the critical t-statistic of
2.042 @ 0.05 level of significance. This means that there is a statistically
significant relationship between foreign portfolio investment and All Share
Index of the Nigeria Stock Exchange.
5.1 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS CONCLUSIONs AND
RECOMMENDATION
From
the findings of the study, foreign portfolio investment showed a positive and
statistically significant relationship with the performance of the stock market
in terms of All Share Index (ASI) and market capitalization (mktcap). This
means that increased inflow of FPI into the market will lead better
performance. In a similar study, Ozurumba, (2012) found a positive relationship
between foreign portfolio investment and stock market returns. Similarly,
Eniekezimene, (2013) and Onyeisi, et al (2016) show in their separate studies
that foreign portfolio inflows contribute positively long-run relationship with
stock market returns and growth. They further conclude that increased FPI lead
to increase in stock market when there is a conducive business environment for
foreign investments to thrive in Nigeria.
Considering
the above, we conclude that the inflow of foreign portfolio investment into the
country is an important source of improved liquidity and better performance in
the Nigeria Stock Exchange. We therefore recommend that policies that will
attract more foreign capital into the stock market be put in place to further
boost performance. To this end, we recommend that more companies be attracted
to get listed on the stock exchange to further deepen the market thus
increasing trading activities and improving liquidity.
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Eniekezimene,
A. F. (2013). The impact of foreign portfolio investment on capital market
growth: evidence from Nigeria. Global Business and Economics Research Journal,
2(8): 13-30.
Froot,
K. A., O'Connell, P. G., & Seasholes, M. S. (2001). The portfolio flows of
international investors. Journal of Financial Economics, 59, 151–193.
Gordon,
J., Gupta, P. (2003). Portfolio flows into India: do domestic fundamentals
matters? IMF Working Paper, (pp. 1–38).
Hymer,
S. (1976). The international operations of national firms: a study of direct
foreign investment, 14. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press139–155.
Kodongo,
O., & Ojah, K. (2012).The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates
and international portfolio flows: evidence From Africa's capital markets.
International Review of Economics and Finance, 24, 71–87.
Mody,
A., Taylor, M. P., & Kim, J. Y. (2001). Modeling fundamentals for
forecasting capital flows to emerging markets. International Journal of Finance
and Economics, 6, 201–216.
Obadan
M. I. (2004). Foreign Capital Flows and External Debt: Perspectives on Nigeria
and the LDCs Group. Ibadan University Press, Nigeria
Olotu,
M. E.; Jegbefume, K. (2011). The Place of Foreign Capital Flows in the Nigerian
Economic Growth Equation: Evidence From Foreign Portfolio Investment,
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A.C. & Akujuobi, L.E. (2013) Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the
Performance of Foreign Portfolio Investment in Nigeria, European Journal of
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Wikipedia
(2016) : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_index
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Dependent Variable: MKTCAP
|
|
|
||
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
||
|
Date: 01/31/17 Time:
20:02
|
|
|||
|
Sample: 1986 2015
|
|
|
||
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std.
Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
2197.068
|
830.2420
|
2.646298
|
0.0132
|
|
FPI
|
0.007612
|
0.001218
|
6.248657
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.582375
|
Mean dependent var
|
4421.709
|
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.567459
|
S.D. dependent var
|
6246.382
|
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
4108.110
|
Akaike info criterion
|
19.54365
|
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.73E+08
|
Schwarz criterion
|
19.63707
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-291.1548
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
19.57354
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
39.04572
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.673344
|
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: ASI
|
|
|
||
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
||
|
Date: 01/31/17 Time:
20:03
|
|
|||
|
Sample: 1986 2015
|
|
|
||
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std.
Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
11490.88
|
2608.690
|
4.404846
|
0.0001
|
|
FPI
|
0.012859
|
0.003828
|
3.359472
|
0.0023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.287279
|
Mean dependent var
|
15248.92
|
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.261825
|
S.D. dependent var
|
15023.81
|
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
12908.03
|
Akaike info criterion
|
21.83343
|
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.67E+09
|
Schwarz criterion
|
21.92684
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-325.5014
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
21.86331
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
11.28606
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.497755
|
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.002267
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For comments, observation or other feedback or if you need assistance with your research projects/papers, you can contact the author via E-mail: researchmidas@gmail.com or call/Whatsapp (+234)0803-544-6622
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